Covid and excess mortality
With the pandemic excess mortality has become a matter of interest. Much has been written, said and doubted about it. The main starting point is that there must be concurrence on the numbers. In the articles below I study the calculation of excess mortality, give a logical check for the official numbers and develop a method that improves the usual calculations of life expectancy, mortality etcetera. The results are compared with the numbers of the CBS (Dutch Central Bureau for Statistics). However, these methods are universally applicable.
Pandemic Adjusted Excess Mortality – PAEM
This article calculates according to the method PAEM the excess mortality for the period 2020-2030 for the Netherlands and compares the results with the numbers from the Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). The CBS has changed the way to determine expected mortality per 2024 for the years 2024-2030. Combined the total difference for excess mortality for the period 2020-2030 is well above 100.000.
The CBS (Dutch Bureau of Statistics) underestimates excess mortality for 2021
This article shows how the CBS underestimates the excess mortality in 2021. The article is brief and a good introduction to the other articles.
The excess mortality is strongly underestimated
The article ‘The excess mortality is strongly underestimated’ contains a method to calculate excess mortality and a comparison with the numbers from the CBS. It seems that the excess mortality according to the official numbers is significantly underestimated.
Excess mortality is strongly underestimated – short
This is a short version of ‘The excess mortality is strongly underestimated’ for a quick impression.
Expected mortality adjusted for distribution in age groups
Every year expected life years, mortality per year group etcetera are adjusted from the population per January 1. This adjustment usually is done by applying a percentage based on historical data. The distribution of people in year groups changes form covid. In ‘Expected mortality adjusted for distribution in age groups’ I show how and why the method of calculation should be adjusted.
Extrapolating mortality probabilities with a pandemic: a warning
In the pandemic we work with baselines as expected mortality. These baselines usually are in some way extrapolated mortality rates from the years before the pandemic that are applied to the new population numbers. However the pandemic also changes the mortality rates that are expected. Below an example to show this effect. When calculating baselines one should be cautious because of this.
When mortality is back to the baseline that doesn’t mean the pandemic or excess mortality is over
With the pandemic we see graphs like this followed by the statement: We are back at the baseline! No more excess mortality, the pandemic is over. Hurray! This optimism is usually false as I shall demonstrate.
A check for the expected mortality
The expected mortality is usually calculated based on year groups, cohorts of years, breakdown into man/woman and so on. The greater picture can get lost because of this much detail. in ‘A check for the expected mortality’ is a method for a calculation to check the total expected mortality.
Excess mortality vs covid mortality: a clarification
With the pandemic we see that the number of covid deaths are usually not equal to the observed excess
mortality. This raises the question how to get a good insight in total excess mortality. This article shows
how to get a full overview on excess mortality and covid mortality.
A method to calculate excess mortality
In ‘A method to calculate expected mortality’ is a statistical method to calculate expected and excess mortality per year.
AG2024 two observations
The Koninklijk Actuarieel Genootschap (AG) (Royal Dutch Actuarial Association) presented its latest Projections Life Table AG2024. In this article two observations. First we observe that, with the assumptions from AG2024, until 2030 excess mortality is 92,7 thousand. Second observation is how mortality rates change because of the pandemic. Those observations are to consider with actuarial calculations.
Reaction CBS
In ‘Opinion CBS’ is the reply of the CBS to an earlier version of ‘The excess mortality is strongly underestimated’.